DR Economy: Strong or Shaky?

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In this edition of the Grubernation Weekly Newsletter:

• The Truth About the DR Economy

• This Week in DR News

• WORST Investment in Punta Cana

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The TRUTH About the DR Economy

Today is just data compiled form my YouTube live! This is my straight read on where the Dominican economy stands today and what I’m watching next.

It’s stable and investable—but not invincible.

TL;DR (2-minute skim)

• Banking system assets: ~RD$4 trillion (loans, securities, cash/reserves).

• FDI inflows: ~US$5B (record pace), funding real projects and jobs.

• Growth: ~3.5–4.0% for 2025 (downshift from earlier ~5% hopes, still strong).

• Tourism: Record trajectory; visitor mix broadening beyond the U.S.

• Debt: ~47% of GDP (official SPNF); ~57% on a broader “incl. Central Bank” view.

• Bottom line: Solid base with known pressure points (energy, weather, global demand).

What “RD$4T in assets” actually means

That’s not “government money.” It’s the banking system’s balance sheet:

• Loans (mortgages, consumer, business)

• Securities (a lot are government bonds)

• Cash & reserves (banks’ money parked at/through the Central Bank)

Growing assets + strong solvency = banks can fund the real economy without obvious stress.

Why $5B USD in Foreign Direct Investment matters

FDI = sticky capital that builds hotels, power plants, factories, logistics hubs—assets that throw off cash flows.

• Think FDI = fuel

• Banking system = engine
  Fuel flows in (dollars). The engine turns it into lending, jobs, and output. That’s how growth gets financed without blowing out the currency.

2025 growth: slower, still strong

We started the year hoping for ~5%. Reality is closer to ~3.5–4.0%. That’s not contraction—it’s a downshift after a hot run. In a choppy global environment, this is still crazy good growth for an emerging economy.

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Tourism: records + diversification

Non-resident air arrivals keep setting records. U.S. demand wobbled a bit, but South America stepped up (longer stays, higher spend). Cruise continues to grow. The hotel pipeline keeps expanding. Tourism remains the lead engine, and the fuel mix is broader than most people think.

Debt: 47% or ~57%? Both numbers are real—define your scope

• ~47% of GDP = official SPNF (public sector, non-financial).

• ~57% of GDP = broader view including Central Bank certificates (quasi-fiscal).

Is this healthy? Headline ratios say yes. The watch-outs are affordability (interest vs. low tax revenue) and FX share (a lot of debt in dollars). Manageable, but not a free lunch.

Energy & Free Zones: the quiet story

Two areas with serious momentum:

• Energy: grid + renewables = reliability (a must for industry and quality of life).

• Free Trade Zones: nearshoring, medical devices, electronics, apparel—real exports, formal jobs, and a logistics edge (PUJ cargo hub, etc.).

My Take on the Economy…

Stable, investable, NOT invincible.

Strengths: tourism momentum, resilient banks, record FDI, improving infrastructure, relative political stability.

Risks: energy costs/reliability, hurricane seasons, FX exposure, the need for tax/revenue reform, global demand shocks.

What I’m watching next

• Tourism mix: U.S. vs. South America vs. Europe rebound

• Energy build-out: execution and reliability metrics

• Debt composition: more local-currency debt over time?

• Free zones: jobs + export growth around logistics hubs

• Credit ratings: inching toward investment grade (not there yet)

If you’d like to see a deeper dive along with questions answered, here’s the YouTube LIVE Replay from Friday October 10 going in depth on all of this…

This Week in DR News…

• New Sargassum Law - the government proposed 14 new laws including one that seeks to provide a framework for the collection, treatment and economic use of sargassum. The proposed law is called “Law for the Protection of Tourist Areas from Sargassum

• Logistics the ‘New Economic Access’ for DR - the head of customs addressed university students highlighting the importance of this sector in producing significant revenue for the country’s balance sheet and a ‘24 hour dispatch’ process that is getting a lot of traction.

• American Legion APPROVED for Punta Cana - this is news SO new I don’t have a link (true inside stuff!!). American Legion 809 is officially moving forward and will be named after deceased general Colin Powell. Press releases will soon follow but this is HUGE news for veterans in Punta Cana.

WORST Investment in Punta Cana

Take a look and let me know if you agree or disagree.

But I believe a specific strategy being deployed in a specific project will NOT yeild what’s promised by MANY realtors .. including the one in this video!

Need someone to help you with real estate, insurance, home inspection or land - but don’t know who to trust? Check out my trusted referral network here and fill out forms for any referrals you need. These partners will likely pay me a commission if you use them, so please know that and always do what’s best for you!