This is the WORST Investment In Punta Cana

In this week’s edition of the Grubernation Weekly Newsletter:

• This is the WORST Investment in Punta Cana

• This Week in Dominican Republic News

• Abinader SCORCHES The UN General Assembly

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This is the WORST Investment in Punta Cana

I came across a reel on Instagram that I thought was really well done. The agent walked through the numbers on buying a condo in Vista Cana and even made sure to add a disclaimer — things change quickly, do your research, do your due diligence. That’s solid advice.

Here’s her scenario:

• Purchase Price: $150,000 (Vista Cana condo)

• Nightly Rate: $125

• Occupancy: 20 nights/month

• Expenses: 25% management fee, $150 maintenance/HOA, $200 utilities & WiFi

• Math: $2,500 gross – $975 expenses = $1,525/month net → $18,300/year

• ROI: 12%

On the surface, that looks fantastic. But let’s dig in.

Where I Agree 👍

• Management Fee (25%) → Totally reasonable for Airbnb here.

• Maintenance/HOA ($150) → Checks out.

• Well-presented content → Honestly, she did a great job explaining it clearly.

Where I Disagree 🚨

• Purchase Price: $150K will get you a cookie-cutter 1-bedroom at best in Vista Cana. Prices have moved up.

• Nightly Rate: $125 is possible, but AirDNA shows more like $107–115 average.

• Expenses: $200 is light. Just electricity with high usage can run near that. Good WiFi (a must in Vista Cana, where cell service is weak) adds another $50–80.

• Occupancy (20 nights/month): This is the big one. Punta Cana averages ~46% occupancy. Vista Cana is inland with no beach access — so 40% is more realistic. That’s 12 nights/month, not 20.

When you redo the numbers with realistic assumptions, the ROI drops to around 5-6%. In fact, I’d argue you should underwrite Vista Cana Airbnb at 7–10 nights/month.

What Vista Cana Really Is

Vista Cana is not a vacationer’s paradise. And that’s not a bad thing — in fact, it’s what makes it unique. It’s a community:

• School on-site

• A mall being built

• Dentist, pharmacy, gym, bakery at the entrance

• Sports complex under construction

Vista Cana has chosen its identity. It’s a non-beach residential community, and they’re doing it really well. If I’m visiting the Caribbean for vacation? I want to be on the beach. If I’m moving with my family? Vista Cana makes a ton of sense.

So Why Buy in Vista Cana?

I see two good reasons:

1. Appreciation → projected at ~5-7% annually.

2. Lifestyle → you’re planning to live there, now or later.

If you need cash flow to hold the property until then, long-term rental is the better play.

Example: Buy a $240,000 three-bedroom villa (yes, it’s a bit cookie-cutter, but families want it). Rent it long-term for $1,500/month. Tenant pays utilities and maintenance. You can self-manage. That’s ~$18,000/year = 7.5% gross ROI. After some expenses, it’s 5–6% — but stable, with a renter maintaining the home until you’re ready to move in.

Compare that to chasing 20 nights/month in a one-bedroom box you’d never live in.

The Bigger Picture

I want this realtor to be right. If Vista Cana Airbnbs actually produced 12% ROI consistently, I’d be thrilled. That would mean an even stronger market for all of us. But I don’t believe that’s reality. And I’d rather you see Vista Cana for what it is — a premier residential destination with community amenities that are already impressive and still growing.

We went through this example on the weekly DR Inner Circle Q&A call and the people who have invested saw this the same .. Airbnb isn’t the way in Vista Cana.

It’s worth noting: Cap Cana, by contrast, is still figuring out its identity. The day they fully commit, they’ll go stratospheric. Vista Cana has already made that decision.

That’s why I say buying a Vista Cana condo for Airbnb is the worst investment in Punta Cana — not because Vista Cana is bad, but because it’s great at what it is: a place to live, not a vacation rental hub.

This Week in Dominican Republic News…

• DR and US Cooperate on Drug Boat Takedown - Dominican authorities in close coordination with the US Southern Command detected a speed boat filled with narcotics and executed an operation to seize the shipment and deploy a military style strike on the vessel. This was the first ‘joint operation against narcoterrorism in the Caribbean’

• Heavy Rain leaves over 600,000 without Drinking Water - a tropical system hit the Dominican Republic on September 26 dumping massive amounts of rainfall causing flooding and many other issues, particularly in dense cities like Santo Domingo.

• Dominican Republic Improves Human Trafficking Ranking - the US releases a report annually which upgraded DR from ‘Tier 2 Watchlist’ to ‘Tier 2’ - removing the watchlist label which means countries that are at risk of sliding to Tier 3. For context, Tier 3 countries include Russia, China and North Korea. Tier 2 includes Mexico and Israel. No trafficking is the ideal .. but improvement is always welcome.

Abinader SCORCHES The UN General Assembly

The Dominican President spoke at the UN in New York City this past week.

In this video, I broke down the three parts of his speech that were the most newsworthy and provided my analysis.

Be sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven’t already!